96815 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 34 points: about 67% of voters vote Democratic and 33% Republican.
About 46% of adults in 96815 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 96815, ~31% vote Democratic, ~15% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 96815 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 96815 leans more Democratic than 19 of 20 neighbors.
96815 runs about 10 points more Democratic than Hawaii as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 96815. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+43) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+29), a spread of about 14 points.
Why 96815 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 96815, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 48% of adults in 96815 hold a bachelor's degree, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 37% of adults in 96815 have never been married, above 84% of zip codes.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 96815, HI sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 96815 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 53% of households in 96815 rent, about 28 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and 96815 sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 8% of homes in 96815 have more than one occupant per room, above 94% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.