Ahwatukee leans slightly Democratic by roughly 6 points: about 53% of voters vote Democratic and 47% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Ahwatukee typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ahwatukee, ~40% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ahwatukee compares
Ahwatukee runs about 12 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Ahwatukee. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+16) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+5), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Ahwatukee leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ahwatukee, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 56% of adults in Ahwatukee hold a bachelor's degree, about 28 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Ahwatukee, Phoenix, AZ sits above the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Ahwatukee looks the way it does
Turnout in Ahwatukee sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Tempe Royal Estates, Tempe, AZ D+22
- Wood Park, Tempe, AZ D+30
- South Mountain, Phoenix, AZ D+35
- Baseline-Hardy, Tempe, AZ D+24
- Peterson, Tempe, AZ D+30
- South Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ D+30
- Tempe Junction, Tempe, AZ D+39
- Meyer Park, Tempe, AZ D+29
- Sunset, Tempe, AZ D+41
- Riverside, Tempe, AZ D+42
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Northwest, Virginia Beach, VA D+17
- Mid Wilshire, Los Angeles, CA D+47
- Near North Side, Chicago, IL D+53
- Ewa, Ewa Beach, HI D+6
- Cambrian Park, San Jose, CA D+28
- White Haven-Coro Lake, Memphis, TN D+83
- North Long Beach, Long Beach, CA D+39
- East End, Houston, TX D+31
- Cordova-Appling, Cordova, TN D+30
- Far Northeast, Humble, TX R+21
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.