Arlington leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Arlington typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arlington, ~34% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Arlington compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Arlington leans more Democratic than 15 of 23 neighbors.
Arlington runs about 31 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Arlington is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Arlington. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+36) and the north side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+7), a spread of about 29 points.
Why Arlington leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Arlington, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Arlington votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while Arlington runs about 31 points more Democratic.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Arlington, Jacksonville, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Arlington looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Arlington is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 9 points below the Florida average of 56%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 81% of adults in Arlington have completed high school, below 84% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Lake Lucina, Jacksonville, FL D+15
- Monterey, Jacksonville, FL D+15
- Alderman Park, Jacksonville, FL D+14
- Woodland Acres, Jacksonville, FL D+26
- Arlingwood, Jacksonville, FL R+2
- Arlington Manor, Jacksonville, FL D+15
- Arlington Hills, Jacksonville, FL D+14
- Glynlea-Grove Park, Jacksonville, FL R+16
- University Park-Jacksonville, Jacksonville, FL D+26
- Woodmere, Jacksonville, FL R+6
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Woodcreek Oaks, Roseville, CA R+7
- Concord, Staten Island, NY D+6
- Groesbeck, Cincinnati, OH R+4
- Southwest Garden, St. Louis, MO D+53
- Coeur D'Alene Place, Coeur d'Alene, ID R+43
- Indian Springs, The Woodlands, TX R+34
- Meadow Wood, Aurora, CO D+12
- West End, Duluth, MN D+32
- Tri-Village, Columbus, OH D+48
- Rancho San Antonio, Oakland, CA D+50
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.