Arlington Manor, Jacksonville, FL Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Arlington Manor

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Arlington Manor leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.

 

About 35% of adults in Arlington Manor typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arlington Manor, ~20% vote Democratic, ~15% Republican, and ~65% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Arlington Manor compares

Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Arlington Manor leans more Democratic than 9 of 24 neighbors.

Arlington Manor runs about 28 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Arlington Manor is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by block within Arlington Manor. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+42) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (Even), a spread of about 41 points.

Why Arlington Manor leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Arlington Manor, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 57% of adults in Arlington Manor have never been married, modestly above similar-sized neighborhoods (around 43%). Arlington Manor runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Arlington Manor, Jacksonville, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in Arlington Manor looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Arlington Manor is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 9 points below the Florida average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 71% of households in Arlington Manor rent, compared to around 44% in nearby neighborhoods. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 75% of adults in Arlington Manor have completed high school, below 91% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.