Lake Lucina leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 47% of adults in Lake Lucina typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lake Lucina, ~27% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~53% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lake Lucina compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Lake Lucina leans more Democratic than 10 of 24 neighbors.
Lake Lucina runs about 28 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Lake Lucina is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Lake Lucina. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+42) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+6), a spread of about 48 points.
Why Lake Lucina leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lake Lucina, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lake Lucina votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while Lake Lucina runs about 28 points more Democratic.
Population density, never-married share, and Democratic lean
Places that combine high population density and a low never-married share tend to lean Democratic, as Lake Lucina, Jacksonville, FL does.
Why turnout in Lake Lucina looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Lake Lucina is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 49%, about 8 points below the Florida average of 56%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Arlington, Jacksonville, FL D+18
- Arlington Manor, Jacksonville, FL D+15
- Monterey, Jacksonville, FL D+15
- Arlingwood, Jacksonville, FL R+2
- University Park-Jacksonville, Jacksonville, FL D+26
- Woodmere, Jacksonville, FL R+6
- Alderman Park, Jacksonville, FL D+14
- Arlington Hills, Jacksonville, FL D+14
- Woodland Acres, Jacksonville, FL D+26
- Charter Point, Jacksonville, FL D+28
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Mission Valley East, San Diego, CA D+33
- Century Village, West Palm Beach, FL D+11
- The Plot, Scranton, PA D+13
- Parkwood Maintenance, San Antonio, TX D+11
- Athenia, Clifton, NJ D+5
- Far West, Wilsonville, OR D+18
- Gravois Park, St. Louis, MO D+72
- Yorktown, Huntington Beach, CA Even
- 9th and 9th, Salt Lake City, UT D+70
- Geneva, Orem, UT R+17
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.