Arnold leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 55% of adults in Arnold typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arnold, ~32% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~46% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Arnold compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Arnold leans more Democratic than 203 of 237 neighbors.
Arnold runs about 20 points more Democratic than Pennsylvania as a whole. Pennsylvania is roughly evenly split, and Arnold sits clearly on the Democratic side.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Arnold. The northwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+35) and the east side is the least Democratic-leaning (Even), a spread of about 35 points.
Why Arnold leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Arnold, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 91% of residents in Arnold live in densely developed areas, about 55 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 41% of adults in Arnold have never been married, above 94% of cities. Arnold runs against the grain of Pennsylvania, a Democratic-leaning outlier in a roughly evenly split state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Arnold, PA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Arnold looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 36% of households in Arnold rent, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Creighton, PA R+16
- New Kensington, PA R+8
- Lower Burrell, PA R+25
- Brackenridge, PA R+9
- Harwick, PA R+18
- Springdale, PA R+7
- Rural Ridge, PA R+6
- Tarentum, PA R+22
- Natrona Heights, PA R+13
- Cheswick, PA R+7
Cities with Similar Populations
- Montello, WI R+36
- West Burlington, IA R+15
- Dell Rapids, SD R+42
- Tawas City, MI R+30
- Montverde, FL R+37
- Dexter, NM R+48
- Sugarcreek, PA R+43
- Blanding, UT R+65
- Mexico, NY R+32
- Farrell, PA D+43
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.