Atascadero leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Atascadero typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Atascadero, ~36% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Atascadero compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Atascadero leans more Republican than 11 of 24 neighbors.
Atascadero runs about 27 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Atascadero is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Atascadero leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Atascadero, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Atascadero votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 72%, modestly above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Atascadero runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Atascadero, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Atascadero looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Atascadero is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Templeton, CA R+18
- Garden Farms, CA R+22
- El Paso de Robles, CA R+2
- Creston, CA R+35
- Klau, CA R+19
- Morro Bay, CA D+16
- Paso Robles, CA R+32
- Cayucos, CA D+14
- Santa Margarita, CA R+23
- Whitley Gardens, CA R+50
Cities with Similar Populations
- Crowley, TX R+10
- Greenville, MS D+57
- San Carlos, CA D+57
- Anthem, AZ R+24
- Dania Beach, FL D+10
- Lewis Center, OH D+8
- Graham, WA R+21
- Grandville, MI R+5
- Fruit Cove, FL R+30
- Studio City, CA D+44
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.