Avra Valley leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Avra Valley typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Avra Valley, ~28% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Avra Valley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Avra Valley leans more Republican than 8 of 12 neighbors.
Avra Valley runs about 23 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Why Avra Valley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Avra Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Avra Valley votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 25%, modestly below the Arizona average of 39%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Avra Valley, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Avra Valley looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Avra Valley is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 50%, about 11 points below the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Picture Rocks, AZ R+36
- Red Rock, AZ R+43
- Marana, AZ R+9
- Friendly Corners, AZ R+43
- Casas Adobes, AZ D+9
- Picacho, AZ R+46
- Oro Valley, AZ D+3
- Tucson Estates, AZ Even
- Flowing Wells, AZ D+11
- Valencia West, AZ D+20
Cities with Similar Populations
- Cochranville, PA R+21
- East Earl, PA R+57
- Yaphank, NY R+22
- Goodview, VA R+54
- Herculaneum, MO R+35
- Rothschild, WI R+6
- Freeland, WA D+46
- Breese, IL R+53
- Ridgway, PA R+35
- Maize, KS R+33
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.