Oro Valley, AZ Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Oro Valley

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Oro Valley is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.

 

About 90% of adults in Oro Valley typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Oro Valley, ~47% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~10% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Oro Valley compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Oro Valley leans more Democratic than 12 of 20 neighbors.

Oro Valley runs about 9 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Oro Valley. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+14) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+5), a spread of about 19 points.

Why Oro Valley leans the way it does

Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Oro Valley. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Oro Valley, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in Oro Valley looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Oro Valley is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Oro Valley have completed high school, above 92% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.