Valencia West leans Democratic by roughly 20 points: about 60% of voters vote Democratic and 40% Republican.
About 69% of adults in Valencia West typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Valencia West, ~41% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Valencia West compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Valencia West leans more Democratic than 15 of 18 neighbors.
Valencia West runs about 26 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Valencia West is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Valencia West. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+57) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+10), a spread of about 47 points.
Why Valencia West leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Valencia West, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 34% of residents in Valencia West live in densely developed areas, above 82% of cities. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 37% of adults in Valencia West have never been married, above 90% of cities. Valencia West runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Valencia West, AZ sits above the national average on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Valencia West looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Valencia West is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 49%, about 5 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Tucson Estates, AZ Even
- Drexel Heights, AZ D+23
- South Tucson, AZ D+44
- Three Points, AZ R+16
- Flowing Wells, AZ D+11
- Summit, AZ D+22
- Tucson, AZ D+16
- Picture Rocks, AZ R+36
- Sahuarita, AZ R+7
- Casas Adobes, AZ D+9
Cities with Similar Populations
- Wildwood, FL R+27
- North Bay Shore, NY D+25
- Jacksonville, IL R+13
- Clarksville, IN R+8
- Rensselaer, NY D+8
- Cherry Hill, NJ D+26
- Rigby, ID R+69
- Columbia City, IN R+49
- Arvin, CA D+9
- Mount Pleasant, TX R+26
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.