Tucson Estates is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Tucson Estates typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tucson Estates, ~38% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tucson Estates compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tucson Estates sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 10 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 7 leaning the other way.
Tucson Estates runs about 4 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tucson Estates. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+12), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Tucson Estates leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Tucson Estates. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Tucson Estates, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Tucson Estates looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 91% of households in Tucson Estates own their home, about 18 points above the Arizona average of 73%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Tucson Estates sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Valencia West, AZ D+20
- Drexel Heights, AZ D+23
- South Tucson, AZ D+44
- Flowing Wells, AZ D+11
- Picture Rocks, AZ R+36
- Tucson, AZ D+16
- Three Points, AZ R+16
- Casas Adobes, AZ D+9
- Summit, AZ D+22
- Marana, AZ R+9
Cities with Similar Populations
- Punxsutawney, PA R+51
- Gladstone, OR D+17
- Herrin, IL R+35
- Hudson Falls, NY R+17
- Woodmere, NY R+56
- Falmouth, ME D+31
- Newport East, RI D+15
- Brown Deer, WI D+45
- Clay, AL R+5
- Highland City, FL R+29
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.