Baldwin District leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Baldwin District typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Baldwin District, ~41% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Baldwin District compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Baldwin District is the most Democratic-leaning.
Baldwin District runs about 11 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Baldwin District. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+26) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+10), a spread of about 17 points.
Why Baldwin District leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Baldwin District. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Baldwin District, Manassas, VA sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Baldwin District looks the way it does
Turnout in Baldwin District sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Wellington, Manassas, VA D+13
- Weems, Manassas, VA D+11
- West Gate, Sudley, VA D+17
- Wakefield Park, Annandale, VA D+35
- Mantua, Fairfax, VA D+40
- North Springfield, Springfield, VA D+26
- Merrifield, Fairfax, VA D+48
- South Post, Fort Belvoir, VA D+19
- Lake Barcroft, Falls Church, VA D+41
- Sterling Park, Sterling, VA D+23
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Five Points, Atlanta, GA D+76
- Central Park, Superior, WI D+12
- Brunswick, Gary, IN D+80
- Pioneer Square, Seattle, WA D+58
- Regis, Denver, CO D+54
- Hobart Circle Historic District, Troy, OH R+23
- Webster, Oakland, CA D+60
- Grantley, York, PA D+23
- Albion Place, Clifton, NJ R+3
- Allendale Area, Arvada, CO D+19
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.