Lake Barcroft leans heavily Democratic by roughly 40 points: about 70% of voters vote Democratic and 30% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Lake Barcroft typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lake Barcroft, ~47% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lake Barcroft compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Lake Barcroft leans more Democratic than 3 of 36 neighbors.
Lake Barcroft runs about 35 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Lake Barcroft. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+47) and the east side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+34), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Lake Barcroft leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lake Barcroft, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 62% of adults in Lake Barcroft hold a bachelor's degree, about 34 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Park access and Democratic lean
Places with heavy park coverage tend to lean Democratic; Lake Barcroft, Falls Church, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Lake Barcroft looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Lake Barcroft is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Bailey's Crossroads, Falls Church, VA D+44
- Forest Glen, Arlington, VA D+43
- Columbia Heights West, Arlington, VA D+40
- Columbia Forest, Arlington, VA D+51
- Alexandria Wrest, Alexandria, VA D+51
- Madison Condominium, Falls Church, VA D+45
- Bluemont, Arlington, VA D+60
- Barcroft, Arlington, VA D+48
- Arlington-East Falls, Arlington, VA D+57
- Buckingham, Arlington, VA D+52
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Campbell Park, Anchorage, AK D+31
- Foster-Powell, Portland, OR D+63
- Oak Park, Salem, OR D+19
- Walnut Valley, Little Rock, AR D+44
- South Southeast 3, Topeka, KS D+7
- Social, Woonsocket, RI D+19
- South Shore, Alameda, CA D+59
- Cabbage Town, Atlanta, GA D+69
- North River, Toledo, OH D+44
- middletown, Bethlehem, PA Even
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.