Baldwin Harbor leans heavily Democratic by roughly 40 points: about 70% of voters vote Democratic and 30% Republican.
About 72% of adults in Baldwin Harbor typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Baldwin Harbor, ~50% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Baldwin Harbor compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Baldwin Harbor leans more Democratic than 170 of 188 neighbors.
Baldwin Harbor runs about 27 points more Democratic than New York as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Baldwin Harbor. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+61) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+28), a spread of about 33 points.
Why Baldwin Harbor leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Baldwin Harbor, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 83% of residents in Baldwin Harbor live in densely developed areas, about 47 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Baldwin Harbor sits in the top quarter (about 48%, above 92% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 39% of adults in Baldwin Harbor have never been married, above 93% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Baldwin Harbor, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Baldwin Harbor looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Baldwin Harbor is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 94% of households in Baldwin Harbor own their home, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Oceanside, NY R+17
- Freeport, NY D+39
- Baldwin, NY D+40
- Rockville Centre, NY D+7
- Lido Beach, NY D+6
- Point Lookout, NY Even
- Merrick, NY R+6
- Island Park, NY R+21
- East Rockaway, NY R+17
- Roosevelt, NY D+65
Cities with Similar Populations
- Castroville, TX R+33
- Mountainside, NJ Even
- Monticello, FL R+17
- Wadesboro, NC D+22
- Trinity, TX R+53
- Sunnyvale, TX R+19
- Dormont, PA D+39
- Tomahawk, WI R+28
- Louisburg, KS R+39
- Beaverton, MI R+45
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.