Canoncito leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Canoncito typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Canoncito, ~30% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Canoncito compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Canoncito leans more Democratic than 10 of 57 neighbors.
Canoncito runs about 11 points more Democratic than New Mexico as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Canoncito. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+50) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+11), a spread of about 38 points.
Why Canoncito leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Canoncito. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Park access and Democratic lean
Places with heavy park coverage tend to lean Democratic; Canoncito, NM sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Canoncito looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Canoncito is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 25% of adults in Canoncito report food insecurity, above 90% of cities. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Canoncito sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Ojo Sarco, NM D+13
- Dixon, NM D+11
- Chamisal, NM D+28
- Rinconada, NM D+13
- Embudo, NM D+20
- Picuris Pueblo, NM D+20
- Penasco, NM D+20
- El Valle, NM D+40
- Llano, NM D+48
- Rodarte, NM D+47
Cities with Similar Populations
- Alfordsville, IN R+70
- Elamville, AL R+19
- Elba, LA R+82
- Moro Bay, AR R+59
- Emmons, WV R+54
- Voss, ND R+56
- Straight Mountain, AL R+83
- Stranger, TX R+70
- Streeter, TX R+66
- Disco, IL R+57
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.