Carbon County leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 85% of adults in Carbon County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carbon County, ~26% vote Democratic, ~59% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carbon County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Carbon County leans more Republican than 1 of 3 neighbors.
Carbon County runs about 18 points more Republican than Montana as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Carbon County. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+64), a spread of about 70 points.
Why Carbon County leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Carbon County. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Carbon County, MT sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Carbon County looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 96% of adults in Carbon County have completed high school, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 90%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Stillwater County, MT R+57
- Yellowstone County, MT R+25
- Park County, WY R+51
- Sweet Grass County, MT R+54
- Big Horn County, WY R+73
- Golden Valley County, MT R+69
- Park County, MT R+14
- Big Horn County, MT Even
- Musselshell County, MT R+64
- Wheatland County, MT R+66
Counties with Similar Populations
- Gates County, NC R+29
- Cumberland County, IL R+60
- Washington County, ID R+57
- Leslie County, KY R+76
- Crawford County, IN R+52
- Custer County, NE R+68
- Bradley County, AR R+30
- Coosa County, AL R+26
- Walsh County, ND R+46
- Mitchell County, IA R+36
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.