Chaves County leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 59% of adults in Chaves County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Chaves County, ~18% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Chaves County compares
Chaves County runs about 43 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Chaves County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Chaves County. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+73) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+36), a spread of about 37 points.
Why Chaves County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Chaves County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 82% of residents in Chaves County drive to work alone, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Chaves County runs against the grain of New Mexico, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Chaves County, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Chaves County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Chaves County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 20%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 10%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 26% of adults in Chaves County report food insecurity, above 92% of counties. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 81% of adults in Chaves County have completed high school, below 93% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Eddy County, NM R+49
- Lincoln County, NM R+28
- De Baca County, NM R+35
- Roosevelt County, NM R+37
- Lea County, NM R+50
- Otero County, NM R+19
- Yoakum County, TX R+59
- Curry County, NM R+34
- Cochran County, TX R+47
- Guadalupe County, NM Even
Counties with Similar Populations
- Lincoln County, SD R+29
- Jefferson County, OH R+35
- Liberty County, GA D+16
- Pulaski County, KY R+59
- Clay County, MN R+3
- Walker County, AL R+72
- Marion County, OH R+35
- Coos County, OR R+10
- Kershaw County, SC R+32
- Salem County, NJ R+12
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.