Clay County is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Clay County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Clay County, ~37% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Clay County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Clay County is the least Republican-leaning.
Clay County runs about 8 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Clay County. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+16) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+32), a spread of about 48 points.
Why Clay County leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Clay County. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Clay County, MN sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Clay County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Clay County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 95% of adults in Clay County have completed high school, above 91% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Cass County, ND R+5
- Norman County, MN R+27
- Wilkin County, MN R+39
- Richland County, ND R+38
- Becker County, MN R+33
- Mahnomen County, MN R+16
- Traill County, ND R+37
- Otter Tail County, MN R+35
- Ransom County, ND R+46
- Barnes County, ND R+36
Counties with Similar Populations
- Walker County, AL R+72
- Marion County, OH R+35
- Liberty County, GA D+16
- Jefferson County, OH R+35
- Kershaw County, SC R+32
- Lincoln County, SD R+29
- Chaves County, NM R+37
- Armstrong County, PA R+52
- Pulaski County, KY R+59
- Coos County, OR R+10
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.