Dover Beaches South leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Dover Beaches South typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Dover Beaches South, ~25% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Dover Beaches South compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Dover Beaches South leans more Republican than 76 of 92 neighbors.
Dover Beaches South runs about 43 points more Republican than New Jersey as a whole. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while Dover Beaches South is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Dover Beaches South leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Dover Beaches South, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dover Beaches South votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 50%, modestly below the New Jersey average of 61%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts. Dover Beaches South runs against the grain of New Jersey, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Dover Beaches South, NJ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Dover Beaches South looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Dover Beaches South is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 74%, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 92% of households in Dover Beaches South own their home, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 99% of adults in Dover Beaches South have completed high school, above 97% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Seaside Heights, NJ R+8
- Lavallette, NJ R+30
- Seaside Park, NJ R+29
- Dover Beaches North, NJ R+27
- Ocean Gate, NJ R+27
- Island Heights, NJ R+20
- Mantoloking, NJ R+24
- Pine Beach, NJ R+22
- Bayville, NJ R+38
- Toms River, NJ R+28
Cities with Similar Populations
- Trenton, KY R+57
- Como, LA R+47
- Harshaw, WI R+30
- Milford Square, PA R+18
- Parmalee, FL R+69
- New Salem, NC R+67
- Longtown, OK R+61
- Milton, IN R+60
- Pleasant Hill, LA R+37
- Pennington, MN Even
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.