Dover, NJ Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Dover

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Dover leans slightly Democratic by roughly 12 points: about 56% of voters vote Democratic and 44% Republican.

 

About 50% of adults in Dover typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Dover, ~28% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Dover compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Dover leans more Democratic than 183 of 233 neighbors.

Dover runs about 6 points more Democratic than New Jersey as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Dover. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+14) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (Even), a spread of about 14 points.

Why Dover leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Dover, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Dense areas vote Democratic. About 88% of residents in Dover live in densely developed areas, about 52 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 37% of adults in Dover have never been married, above 90% of cities.

Walkability and Democratic lean

Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Dover, NJ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.

Why turnout in Dover looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Dover is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 23%, about 13 points above the New Jersey average of 10%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 46% of households in Dover rent, compared to around 22% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 23% of adults in Dover report food insecurity, above 87% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.