Downtown Tampa leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 46% of adults in Downtown Tampa typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Downtown Tampa, ~27% vote Democratic, ~19% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Downtown Tampa compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Downtown Tampa leans more Democratic than 16 of 27 neighbors.
Downtown Tampa runs about 30 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Downtown Tampa is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why Downtown Tampa leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Downtown Tampa, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 59% of adults in Downtown Tampa hold a bachelor's degree, about 31 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 57% of adults in Downtown Tampa have never been married, above 90% of neighborhoods. Downtown Tampa runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Downtown Tampa, Tampa, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Downtown Tampa looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 92% of households in Downtown Tampa rent, about 67 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Downtown Tampa sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Vale and Eastern Avenue, Schenectady, NY D+42
- Queens-Magnolia Terrace, Jackson, MS D+86
- Downtown, Kenosha, WI D+37
- Southchase Village, Southchase, FL D+7
- Greendale Village, Needham, MA D+42
- Tice, Fort Myers, FL D+10
- Three Chopt, Richmond, VA D+23
- Lakewood, Warwick, RI D+12
- Downtown North East, North East, PA R+12
- Downtown, Portland, ME D+68
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.