El Centro leans slightly Democratic by roughly 6 points: about 53% of voters vote Democratic and 47% Republican.
About 45% of adults in El Centro typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in El Centro, ~24% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~55% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How El Centro compares
Among cities within 25 miles, El Centro leans more Democratic than 13 of 14 neighbors.
El Centro runs about 15 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within El Centro. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+16) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+15), a spread of about 31 points.
Why El Centro leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for El Centro, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 86% of residents in El Centro live in densely developed areas, about 49 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 41% of adults in El Centro have never been married, above 94% of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; El Centro, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in El Centro looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. El Centro is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 50%, about 12 points below the California average of 62%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 49% of households in El Centro rent, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 31% of adults in El Centro report food insecurity, above 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Meloland, CA R+12
- Imperial, CA R+12
- Heber, CA D+5
- Mount Signal, CA R+12
- Calexico, CA D+12
- Seeley, CA R+31
- Holtville, CA R+12
- Brawley, CA D+4
- Date City, CA R+33
Cities with Similar Populations
- Hurst, TX R+10
- Downingtown, PA D+14
- Lagrange, GA Even
- Roseville, MI D+7
- Oro Valley, AZ D+3
- Rancho Santa Margarita, CA R+2
- North Miami Beach, FL D+20
- Texas City, TX D+10
- Newburgh, NY D+26
- East Honolulu, HI D+25
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.