Orleans County leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Vermont did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 77% of adults in Orleans County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Orleans County, ~32% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Orleans County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Orleans County leans more Republican than 3 of 6 neighbors.
Orleans County runs about 50 points more Republican than Vermont as a whole. Vermont leans Democratic overall, while Orleans County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Orleans County. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+31) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+3), a spread of about 28 points.
Why Orleans County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Orleans County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Orleans County votes against the grain of Vermont. Vermont leans Democratic overall, while Orleans County runs about 50 points more Republican.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Orleans County, VT sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Orleans County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Orleans County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 80% of households in Orleans County own their home, above 81% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Essex County, VT R+31
- Caledonia County, VT R+9
- Lamoille County, VT D+7
- Franklin County, VT R+23
- Washington County, VT D+19
- Coos County, NH R+24
- Chittenden County, VT D+35
- Grand Isle County, VT Even
- Orange County, VT Even
- Clinton County, NY R+5
Counties with Similar Populations
- Tillamook County, OR R+9
- San Jacinto County, TX R+57
- Logan County, KY R+56
- White County, TN R+66
- Adams County, OH R+64
- Fluvanna County, VA R+16
- Union County, SC R+28
- McDonough County, IL R+11
- San Miguel County, NM D+24
- West Baton Rouge Parish, LA R+9
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Vermont Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. VT did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.