Estrella-Tolleson leans Democratic by roughly 24 points: about 62% of voters vote Democratic and 38% Republican.
About 44% of adults in Estrella-Tolleson typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Estrella-Tolleson, ~28% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~55% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Estrella-Tolleson compares
Estrella-Tolleson runs about 29 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Estrella-Tolleson is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why Estrella-Tolleson leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Estrella-Tolleson, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Estrella-Tolleson votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Estrella-Tolleson runs about 29 points more Democratic.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Estrella-Tolleson, Tolleson, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Estrella-Tolleson looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Estrella-Tolleson is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 50%, about 10 points below the U.S. average of 60%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 7% of homes in Estrella-Tolleson have more than one occupant per room, above 84% of neighborhoods. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 78% of adults in Estrella-Tolleson have completed high school, below 88% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Estrella, Phoenix, AZ D+27
- West Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ D+32
- Cartwright, Phoenix, AZ D+36
- Maryvale, Phoenix, AZ D+29
- Ironwood Terrace, Glendale, AZ D+27
- Downtown Glendale, Glendale, AZ D+16
- Alta Loma, Peoria, AZ R+3
- South Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ D+30
- Alahambra, Phoenix, AZ D+27
- Windsor Square, Glendale, AZ Even
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- North Linden, Columbus, OH D+37
- Near South Side, Chicago, IL D+70
- Little Haiti, Miami, FL D+54
- Albany Park, Chicago, IL D+51
- Las Tierras, El Paso, TX D+14
- Oakwood, Staten Island, NY R+41
- North Laurel, Scaggsville, MD D+45
- West Farms, Bronx, NY D+44
- Poly High District, Long Beach, CA D+38
- Hyde Park, Chicago, IL D+83
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.