Estrella leans Democratic by roughly 26 points: about 63% of voters vote Democratic and 37% Republican.
About 41% of adults in Estrella typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Estrella, ~26% vote Democratic, ~15% Republican, and ~59% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Estrella compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Estrella leans more Democratic than 1 of 4 neighbors.
Estrella runs about 32 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Estrella is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Estrella. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+40) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+12), a spread of about 29 points.
Why Estrella leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Estrella, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Estrella votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Estrella runs about 32 points more Democratic.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Estrella, Phoenix, AZ sits above the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Estrella looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Estrella is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 9 points below the Arizona average of 54%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 34% of adults in Estrella report food insecurity, above 87% of neighborhoods. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 69% of adults in Estrella have completed high school, below 95% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- West Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ D+32
- Cartwright, Phoenix, AZ D+36
- Maryvale, Phoenix, AZ D+29
- Estrella-Tolleson, Tolleson, AZ D+24
- Ironwood Terrace, Glendale, AZ D+27
- South Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ D+30
- Alahambra, Phoenix, AZ D+27
- Downtown Glendale, Glendale, AZ D+16
- Encanto, Phoenix, AZ D+38
- Central Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ D+41
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Germantown, Philadelphia, PA D+87
- Little Havana, Miami, FL R+15
- Northeast, Virginia Beach, VA D+5
- South East, Fort Worth, TX D+53
- Northwest, Anaheim, CA D+15
- Covina-Valley, Covina, CA D+18
- Oak Lawn, Dallas, TX D+20
- Sunnyside, Queens, NY D+36
- West Ridge, Chicago, IL D+21
- Greater Hilltop, Columbus, OH D+16
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.