Fourth Ward leans heavily Democratic by roughly 48 points: about 74% of voters vote Democratic and 26% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Fourth Ward typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Fourth Ward, ~39% vote Democratic, ~13% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Fourth Ward compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Fourth Ward leans more Democratic than 10 of 13 neighbors.
Fourth Ward runs about 61 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while Fourth Ward is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Fourth Ward. The north side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+65) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+30), a spread of about 35 points.
Why Fourth Ward leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Fourth Ward, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in Fourth Ward live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Fourth Ward sits in the top quarter (about 70%, above 91% of neighborhoods). Fourth Ward runs against the grain of Texas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Fourth Ward, Houston, TX sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Fourth Ward looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 79% of households in Fourth Ward rent, about 54 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Midtown, Houston, TX D+42
- Washington Avenue-Memorial Park, Houston, TX D+23
- Montrose, Houston, TX D+39
- Downtown Houston, Houston, TX D+49
- Rice Military, Houston, TX D+22
- Greater Heights, Houston, TX D+24
- Rice, Houston, TX D+39
- River Oaks, Houston, TX D+11
- Greater Fifth Ward, Houston, TX D+63
- Medical, Houston, TX D+41
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- South Area, Wichita, KS R+19
- Haywood Park, San Mateo, CA D+52
- Athmar Park, Denver, CO D+46
- Downtown Ontario, Ontario, CA D+24
- Northside, Cincinnati, OH D+68
- South Overton, Lubbock, TX D+33
- Normandie Heights, Pasadena, CA D+55
- South Oak Park, Sacramento, CA D+40
- Piedmont Avenue, Oakland, CA D+84
- Secret Cove, Jacksonville, FL D+13
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.