Gateway leans Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Alaska did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 74% of adults in Gateway typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Gateway, ~26% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Gateway compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Gateway leans more Republican than 5 of 15 neighbors.
Gateway runs about 17 points more Republican than Alaska as a whole.
Why Gateway leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Gateway, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 81% of households in Gateway are family households, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with low food insecurity tend to turn out at a higher rate; Gateway, AK sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in Gateway looks the way it does
Turnout in Gateway sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lakes, AK R+31
- Palmer, AK R+28
- Wasilla, AK R+25
- Buffalo Soapstone, AK R+32
- Tanaina, AK R+32
- Lazy Mountain, AK R+35
- Knik-Fairview, AK R+40
- Meadow Lakes, AK R+41
- Eska, AK R+40
- Chugiak, AK R+5
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lavon, TX R+33
- Indian Hill, OH R+6
- Oakland, ME R+22
- Gordonsville, VA R+24
- Moore Haven, FL R+38
- Riverdale, CA R+34
- New Carlisle, IN R+28
- Olathe, CO R+49
- Chester, NH R+10
- Alburtis, PA R+18
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Alaska Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. AK did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.