Girvin leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 88% of adults in Girvin typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Girvin, ~32% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~12% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Girvin compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Girvin leans more Republican than 10 of 12 neighbors.
Girvin runs about 14 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Girvin. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+39) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+18), a spread of about 21 points.
Why Girvin leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Girvin, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 78% of households in Girvin are family households, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Girvin, Jacksonville, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Girvin looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Girvin is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 90% of households in Girvin own their home, compared to around 66% in nearby neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- East Arlington, Jacksonville, FL R+14
- Fort Caroline Shores, Jacksonville, FL R+29
- Golden Glades-The Woods, Jacksonville, FL R+17
- Atlantic Beaches, Atlantic Beach, FL R+15
- North Beach, Atlantic Beach, FL R+19
- Cobblestone, Jacksonville, FL R+5
- Sandalwood, Jacksonville, FL R+6
- Hidden Hills, Jacksonville, FL R+8
- Beach Haven, Jacksonville, FL R+16
- Atlantic Boulevard Estates, Jacksonville, FL D+4
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Bleachery, Waltham, MA D+42
- Midtown District, San Diego, CA D+32
- North Clackamas, Oatfield, OR D+13
- Carpenter, Ann Arbor, MI D+50
- White Bridge, Nashville, TN D+20
- White City, Fort Pierce, FL R+26
- Beverly Woods, Charlotte, NC D+7
- Fairview, Allentown, PA D+23
- Diamond Hill-Jarvis, Fort Worth, TX D+20
- South Lorain, Lorain, OH D+21
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.