Pinellas County is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 70% of adults in Pinellas County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Pinellas County, ~34% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Pinellas County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Pinellas County leans more Republican than 1 of 4 neighbors.
Pinellas County runs about 10 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Pinellas County. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+30) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+18), a spread of about 47 points.
Why Pinellas County leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Pinellas County. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Pinellas County, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Pinellas County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Pinellas County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Hillsborough County, FL Even
- Pasco County, FL R+24
- Manatee County, FL R+15
- Hernando County, FL R+33
- Sarasota County, FL R+17
- Polk County, FL R+18
- Hardee County, FL R+46
- Citrus County, FL R+43
- DeSoto County, FL R+35
- Charlotte County, FL R+33
Counties with Similar Populations
- Gwinnett County, GA D+21
- Bergen County, NJ D+5
- Erie County, NY D+15
- Prince George's County, MD D+71
- Marion County, IN D+29
- Milwaukee County, WI D+41
- DuPage County, IL D+14
- Shelby County, TN D+40
- Duval County, FL D+7
- Pierce County, WA D+12
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.