Hillsborough County is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 63% of adults in Hillsborough County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hillsborough County, ~32% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hillsborough County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Hillsborough County sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 6 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 0 leaning the other way.
Hillsborough County runs about 15 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Hillsborough County sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Hillsborough County. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+26) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+9), a spread of about 35 points.
Why Hillsborough County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hillsborough County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Hillsborough County votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while Hillsborough County runs about 15 points more Democratic.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Hillsborough County, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Hillsborough County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Hillsborough County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Pinellas County, FL R+3
- Pasco County, FL R+24
- Manatee County, FL R+15
- Hernando County, FL R+33
- Polk County, FL R+18
- Hardee County, FL R+46
- Sarasota County, FL R+17
- Citrus County, FL R+43
- DeSoto County, FL R+35
- Sumter County, FL R+31
Counties with Similar Populations
- Suffolk County, NY R+8
- Bronx County, NY D+43
- Orange County, FL D+14
- Palm Beach County, FL D+5
- Nassau County, NY Even
- Sacramento County, CA D+20
- Franklin County, OH D+30
- Philadelphia County, PA D+56
- Travis County, TX D+37
- Middlesex County, MA D+37
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.