Holmes Beach leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 89% of adults in Holmes Beach typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Holmes Beach, ~34% vote Democratic, ~55% Republican, and ~11% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Holmes Beach compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Holmes Beach leans more Republican than 35 of 42 neighbors.
Holmes Beach runs about 11 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Why Holmes Beach leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Holmes Beach, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Holmes Beach votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 39%, well below the Florida average of 57%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Holmes Beach, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Holmes Beach looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Holmes Beach is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 99% of adults in Holmes Beach have completed high school, above 97% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Anna Maria, FL R+18
- Bradenton Beach, FL R+19
- West Bradenton, FL R+23
- South Bradenton, FL R+8
- Terra Ceia, FL R+29
- Memphis, FL D+14
- Bayshore Gardens, FL R+8
- Longboat Key, FL R+7
- Palmetto, FL R+18
- Bradenton, FL R+14
Cities with Similar Populations
- Alexandria, TN R+65
- Gray, KY R+74
- Enosburg Falls, VT R+31
- Au Gres, MI R+33
- Woodland, AL R+82
- Chesapeake City, MD R+40
- Boutte, LA D+22
- Fort Fairfield, ME R+28
- Monon, IN R+41
- White Springs, FL R+32
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.