Jasper leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 57% of adults in Jasper typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Jasper, ~23% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Jasper compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Jasper leans more Republican than 1 of 30 neighbors.
Politically, Jasper sits close to the rest of Texas.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Jasper. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+24) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+69), a spread of about 93 points.
Why Jasper leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Jasper, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Jasper votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 39%, above 84% of cities). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Jasper sits in the bottom quarter (about 13%, below 83% of cities).
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Jasper, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Jasper looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Jasper is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 45%, about 8 points below the Texas average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 35% of households in Jasper rent, compared to around 14% in nearby cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Curtis, TX R+49
- Holly Springs, TX R+37
- Erin, TX R+48
- Harrisburg, TX R+58
- Roganville, TX R+72
- Magnolia Springs, TX R+77
- Sam Rayburn, TX R+69
- Brookeland, TX R+77
- Browndell, TX R+70
- Mount Union, TX R+70
Cities with Similar Populations
- Fort Bliss, TX R+10
- Hebron, TX D+3
- Waimanalo, HI D+15
- Elon, NC R+6
- Vicksburg, MI R+18
- Madison, NC R+49
- Edwards, CO D+22
- Bonner Springs, KS R+21
- Swannanoa, NC D+5
- Circle Pines, MN Even
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.