Jefferson County leans Democratic by roughly 22 points: about 61% of voters vote Democratic and 39% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Jefferson County typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Jefferson County, ~32% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Jefferson County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Jefferson County leans more Democratic than 11 of 12 neighbors.
Jefferson County runs about 53 points more Democratic than Arkansas as a whole. Arkansas leans Republican overall, while Jefferson County is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Jefferson County. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+67) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+49), a spread of about 116 points.
Why Jefferson County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Jefferson County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting. Non-Hispanic white share in Jefferson County is about 37%, about 35 points below the U.S. average of 72%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 39% of adults in Jefferson County have never been married, above 92% of counties. Jefferson County runs against the grain of Arkansas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Jefferson County, AR sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Jefferson County looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 39% of households in Jefferson County rent, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 28% of adults in Jefferson County report food insecurity, above 94% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Grant County, AR R+71
- Cleveland County, AR R+69
- Lincoln County, AR R+41
- Arkansas County, AR R+33
- Dallas County, AR R+18
- Saline County, AR R+41
- Pulaski County, AR D+28
- Drew County, AR R+25
- Bradley County, AR R+30
- Lonoke County, AR R+52
Counties with Similar Populations
- Jones County, MS R+32
- Spalding County, GA R+8
- Williamson County, IL R+36
- Butler County, KS R+41
- Aroostook County, ME R+30
- Rice County, MN Even
- Laurens County, SC R+35
- St. Francois County, MO R+48
- Oldham County, KY R+23
- Walker County, GA R+61
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.