Lincoln County leans heavily Republican by roughly 42 points: about 29% of voters vote Democratic and 71% Republican.
About 47% of adults in Lincoln County typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lincoln County, ~14% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~53% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lincoln County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Lincoln County leans more Republican than 6 of 8 neighbors.
Lincoln County runs about 11 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Lincoln County. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+7) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+84), a spread of about 91 points.
Why Lincoln County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lincoln County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 14% of adults in Lincoln County hold a bachelor's degree, about 15 points below the U.S. average of 28%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 69% of households in Lincoln County are family households, above 76% of counties.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Lincoln County, AR sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Lincoln County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Lincoln County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 43%, about 8 points below the Arkansas average of 51%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 27% of adults in Lincoln County report food insecurity, above 92% of counties. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 83% of adults in Lincoln County have completed high school, below 88% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Cleveland County, AR R+69
- Desha County, AR R+7
- Drew County, AR R+25
- Jefferson County, AR D+22
- Arkansas County, AR R+33
- Bradley County, AR R+30
- Grant County, AR R+71
- Dallas County, AR R+18
- Calhoun County, AR R+61
- Chicot County, AR D+3
Counties with Similar Populations
- Wright County, IA R+36
- Jackson County, KY R+73
- Millard County, UT R+69
- Bienville Parish, LA R+16
- Presque Isle County, MI R+36
- Crawford County, MI R+31
- Wilbarger County, TX R+45
- Perquimans County, NC R+34
- Webster County, KY R+58
- Cass County, IL R+31
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.