Kaneohe Bay, HI Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Kaneohe Bay

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Kaneohe Bay is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.

 

About 16% of adults in Kaneohe Bay typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Kaneohe Bay, ~8% vote Democratic, ~8% Republican, and ~84% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Kaneohe Bay compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Kaneohe Bay leans more Democratic than 6 of 31 neighbors.

Kaneohe Bay runs about 20 points more Republican than Hawaii as a whole.

Why Kaneohe Bay leans the way it does

Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Kaneohe Bay. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.

Cancer-screening access and voter turnout

Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Kaneohe Bay, HI sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.

Why turnout in Kaneohe Bay looks the way it does

Renters vote less often than owners. About 94% of households in Kaneohe Bay rent, about 69 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 22% of adults in Kaneohe Bay report food insecurity, above 84% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and more than 99% of adults in Kaneohe Bay have completed high school, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.