Kern County, CA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Kern County

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Kern County leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.

 

About 48% of adults in Kern County typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Kern County, ~21% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~52% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Kern County compares

Kern County runs about 32 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Kern County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by city within Kern County. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+43) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+9), a spread of about 34 points.

Why Kern County leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Kern County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Kern County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 78%, well above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in Kern County are family households, above 96% of counties. Kern County runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.

High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout

Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Kern County, CA does.

Why turnout in Kern County looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Kern County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 40% of households in Kern County rent, above 93% of counties. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 29% of adults in Kern County report food insecurity, above 95% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.