Shelby County leans heavily Democratic by roughly 40 points: about 70% of voters vote Democratic and 30% Republican.
About 59% of adults in Shelby County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Shelby County, ~41% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Shelby County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Shelby County is the most Democratic-leaning.
Shelby County runs about 69 points more Democratic than Tennessee as a whole. Tennessee leans Republican overall, while Shelby County is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Shelby County. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+83) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+4), a spread of about 79 points.
Why Shelby County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Shelby County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 85% of residents in Shelby County live in densely developed areas, about 48 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Shelby County sits in the top quarter (about 33%, above 83% of counties). Shelby County runs against the grain of Tennessee, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Shelby County, TN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Shelby County looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 44% of households in Shelby County rent, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Shelby County sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- DeSoto County, MS R+15
- Crittenden County, AR D+22
- Fayette County, TN R+33
- Tipton County, TN R+47
- Marshall County, MS R+3
- Tate County, MS R+35
- Tunica County, MS D+31
- Benton County, MS R+26
- Haywood County, TN D+13
- Lauderdale County, TN R+23
Counties with Similar Populations
- DuPage County, IL D+14
- Pierce County, WA D+12
- Milwaukee County, WI D+41
- Kern County, CA R+12
- Denton County, TX R+7
- Erie County, NY D+15
- Bergen County, NJ D+5
- Gwinnett County, GA D+21
- Pinellas County, FL R+3
- Prince George's County, MD D+71
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.