Lake County is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Lake County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lake County, ~31% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lake County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Lake County leans more Republican than 2 of 3 neighbors.
Lake County runs about 24 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Lake County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Lake County. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+2) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Lake County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lake County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lake County votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Lake County runs about 24 points more Republican.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Lake County, CA sits above the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Lake County looks the way it does
Turnout in Lake County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Colusa County, CA R+20
- Sonoma County, CA D+42
- Mendocino County, CA D+23
- Napa County, CA D+32
- Glenn County, CA R+32
- Sutter County, CA R+23
- Yolo County, CA D+35
- Solano County, CA D+21
- Yuba County, CA R+16
- Marin County, CA D+48
Counties with Similar Populations
- Allegany County, MD R+33
- Shiawassee County, MI R+27
- Madison County, NY R+13
- McCracken County, KY R+30
- Catoosa County, GA R+54
- Otero County, NM R+19
- Franklin County, NC R+18
- Wise County, TX R+69
- Carteret County, NC R+35
- Walker County, GA R+61
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.