Madera is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 41% of adults in Madera typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Madera, ~21% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~59% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Madera compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Madera sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 20 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 4 leaning the other way.
Madera runs about 18 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Madera. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+20) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+20), a spread of about 41 points.
Why Madera leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Madera. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Madera, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Madera looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Madera is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 47%, about 15 points below the California average of 62%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 44% of households in Madera rent, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 37% of adults in Madera report food insecurity, above 98% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Madera Acres, CA R+15
- Parkwood, CA R+31
- Ripperdan, CA R+34
- La Vina, CA R+22
- Bonadelle Ranchos-Madera Ranchos, CA R+37
- Fairmead, CA R+37
- Sharon, CA R+32
- Biola, CA R+21
- Chowchilla, CA R+26
Cities with Similar Populations
- Springdale, AR R+7
- Littleton, CO D+17
- Somerville, MA D+69
- Westland, MI D+15
- Johns Creek, GA D+9
- Mountain View, CA D+46
- Bloomington, IL D+11
- Centennial, CO D+16
- Mission Viejo, CA R+3
- Rancho Cordova, CA D+10
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.