Chowchilla leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 39% of adults in Chowchilla typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Chowchilla, ~14% vote Democratic, ~25% Republican, and ~61% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Chowchilla compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Chowchilla leans more Republican than 11 of 25 neighbors.
Chowchilla runs about 46 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Chowchilla is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Chowchilla. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+48) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+18), a spread of about 31 points.
Why Chowchilla leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Chowchilla, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Chowchilla votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 36%, well below the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Chowchilla sits in the bottom quarter (about 15%, below 78% of cities). Chowchilla runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Chowchilla, CA does.
Why turnout in Chowchilla looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Chowchilla is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 49% of households in Chowchilla rent, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 31% of adults in Chowchilla report food insecurity, above 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Fairmead, CA R+37
- Sharon, CA R+32
- Le Grand, CA R+14
- Madera Acres, CA R+15
- Planada, CA D+10
- Tuttle, CA R+34
- El Nido, CA R+54
- Madera, CA Even
- Calpack, CA R+32
Cities with Similar Populations
- Elko, NV R+42
- Roxboro, NC R+11
- Panama City Beach, FL R+36
- Amherst Center, MA D+72
- Fernley, NV R+40
- Jesup, GA R+44
- Clinton, UT R+32
- Winchester, MA D+51
- Washington, NC R+9
- Crawfordsville, IN R+35
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.