Maine is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Maine did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 80% of adults in Maine typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Maine, ~40% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Maine compares
Among states within 500 miles, Maine sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 8 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 0 leaning the other way.
Politics vary noticeably by county within Maine. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+20) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+34), a spread of about 55 points.
Why Maine leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Maine. None of them point strongly toward either party.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Maine sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Maine looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Maine is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 64%, above 56% of states. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 75% of households in Maine own their home, above 98% of states. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 95% of adults in Maine have completed high school, above 98% of states. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
- New Hampshire D+6
- Vermont D+13
- Massachusetts D+26
- Rhode Island D+17
- New York D+16
- New Jersey D+11
- Delaware D+17
- Pennsylvania Even
- Maryland D+33
- District of Columbia D+80
States with Similar Populations
- New Hampshire D+6
- Hawaii D+18
- Rhode Island D+17
- Montana R+20
- Delaware D+17
- West Virginia R+41
- South Dakota R+29
- Idaho R+34
- North Dakota R+30
- Nebraska R+15
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maine Secretary of State, Bureau of Corporations Elections and Commissions, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Maine did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.