Hawaii leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 51% of adults in Hawaii typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hawaii, ~30% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hawaii compares
Politics vary noticeably by county within Hawaii. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+21) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+8), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Hawaii leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Hawaii. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Hawaii sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Hawaii looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 9% of homes in Hawaii have more than one occupant per room, in the top fraction of states. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and Hawaii sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 36% of households in Hawaii rent, above 90% of states. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
- California D+20
- Oregon D+14
- Nevada D+5
- Washington D+16
- Alaska Even
- Idaho R+34
- Arizona Even
- Utah R+19
- Montana R+20
- New Mexico D+4
States with Similar Populations
- New Hampshire D+6
- Maine Even
- West Virginia R+41
- Rhode Island D+17
- Montana R+20
- Idaho R+34
- Delaware D+17
- Nebraska R+15
- South Dakota R+29
- New Mexico D+4
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.