Manchester leans Democratic by roughly 30 points: about 65% of voters vote Democratic and 35% Republican.
About 72% of adults in Manchester typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Manchester, ~47% vote Democratic, ~25% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Manchester compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Manchester leans more Democratic than 73 of 84 neighbors.
Manchester runs about 24 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Manchester. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+55) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+12), a spread of about 44 points.
Why Manchester leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Manchester, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 86% of residents in Manchester live in densely developed areas, about 50 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Manchester sits in the top quarter (about 40%, above 87% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 41% of adults in Manchester have never been married, above 94% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Manchester, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Manchester looks the way it does
Turnout in Manchester sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Rockwood, VA D+10
- Bon Air, VA D+17
- Richmond, VA D+19
- Meadowbrook, VA D+45
- Bensley, VA D+22
- Midlothian, VA Even
- Henrico, VA D+48
- Deerfield Estates, VA R+3
- Brandermill, VA D+4
- Chesterfield, VA D+5
Cities with Similar Populations
- Upper Grand Lagoon, FL R+40
- Evanston, WY R+55
- Fort Lupton, CO R+22
- Gold Canyon, AZ R+30
- Jericho, NY D+5
- Roy, WA R+32
- Accokeek, MD D+69
- Globe, AZ R+33
- Vermillion, SD D+11
- Eaton Rapids, MI R+27
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.