Upper Grand Lagoon leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 80% of adults in Upper Grand Lagoon typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Upper Grand Lagoon, ~24% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Upper Grand Lagoon compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Upper Grand Lagoon leans more Republican than 10 of 19 neighbors.
Upper Grand Lagoon runs about 27 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Upper Grand Lagoon. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+51) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+29), a spread of about 22 points.
Why Upper Grand Lagoon leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Upper Grand Lagoon, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Upper Grand Lagoon votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 73%, well above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Upper Grand Lagoon, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Upper Grand Lagoon looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Upper Grand Lagoon is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Upper Grand Lagoon have completed high school, above 93% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lower Grand Lagoon, FL R+37
- West Bay, FL R+41
- Pretty Bayou, FL R+32
- Panama City Beach, FL R+36
- Panama City, FL R+31
- Lynn Haven, FL R+36
- Springfield, FL R+18
- Tyndall AFB, FL R+31
- Parker, FL R+27
- Callaway, FL R+26
Cities with Similar Populations
- Evanston, WY R+55
- Gold Canyon, AZ R+30
- Manchester, VA D+29
- Jericho, NY D+5
- Fort Lupton, CO R+22
- Accokeek, MD D+69
- Globe, AZ R+33
- Roy, WA R+32
- Eaton Rapids, MI R+27
- Alma, AR R+59
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.