Mary Esther leans Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican.
About 72% of adults in Mary Esther typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mary Esther, ~25% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mary Esther compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Mary Esther leans more Republican than 5 of 19 neighbors.
Mary Esther runs about 16 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Why Mary Esther leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mary Esther, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Mary Esther votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 65%, modestly above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Mary Esther, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Mary Esther looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Mary Esther is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 62%, about 6 points above the Florida average of 56%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Hurlburt Field, FL R+44
- Wright, FL R+18
- Fort Walton Beach, FL R+27
- Cinco Bayou, FL R+32
- Ocean City, FL R+29
- Shalimar, FL R+30
- Lake Lorraine, FL R+29
- Navarre, FL R+44
- Eglin Afb, FL R+28
- Valparaiso, FL R+41
Cities with Similar Populations
- Farmington, NY R+4
- Mogadore, OH R+33
- Freeport, FL R+56
- Stevensville, MI R+9
- Brown Deer, WI D+45
- Larkspur, CA D+58
- Hudson Falls, NY R+17
- Atco, NJ R+8
- Gladstone, OR D+17
- Jefferson Hills, PA R+20
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.