McGirts Creek, Jacksonville, FL Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in McGirts Creek

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

McGirts Creek leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.

 

About 69% of adults in McGirts Creek typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in McGirts Creek, ~40% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How McGirts Creek compares

Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, McGirts Creek leans more Democratic than 12 of 19 neighbors.

McGirts Creek runs about 32 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while McGirts Creek is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Why McGirts Creek leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for McGirts Creek, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

McGirts Creek votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while McGirts Creek runs about 32 points more Democratic.

Walkability and Republican lean

Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; McGirts Creek, Jacksonville, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.

Why turnout in McGirts Creek looks the way it does

Turnout in McGirts Creek sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.