Montecito leans heavily Democratic by roughly 40 points: about 70% of voters vote Democratic and 30% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Montecito typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Montecito, ~53% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Montecito compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Montecito leans more Democratic than 10 of 13 neighbors.
Montecito runs about 20 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Montecito. The northwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+44) and the east side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+33), a spread of about 11 points.
Why Montecito leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Montecito, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 73% of adults in Montecito hold a bachelor's degree, about 44 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and Montecito sits in the top fifth on density (about 67%, above 91% of cities).
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Montecito, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Montecito looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Montecito is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 76%, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Montecito have completed high school, above 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Summerland, CA D+38
- Toro Canyon, CA D+31
- Santa Barbara, CA D+49
- Carpinteria, CA D+37
- Isla Vista, CA D+80
- Goleta, CA D+53
- Ellwood, CA D+37
- Meiners Oaks, CA D+3
- Oak View, CA D+13
- Mira Monte, CA D+22
Cities with Similar Populations
- Island Lake, IL R+8
- Kaplan, LA R+59
- Northwest Harborcreek, PA R+5
- Riviera Beach, MD R+20
- Caseyville, IL R+8
- Bridgeville, DE R+16
- Milan, IL R+9
- Breckenridge, CO D+24
- Poteet, TX R+20
- Halfway, MD R+24
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.