Goleta is a Democratic stronghold. About 77% of voters here vote Democratic and 23% Republican.
About 57% of adults in Goleta typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Goleta, ~44% vote Democratic, ~13% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Goleta compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Goleta leans more Democratic than 11 of 12 neighbors.
Goleta runs about 33 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Goleta. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+68) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+19), a spread of about 49 points.
Why Goleta leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Goleta, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 87% of residents in Goleta live in densely developed areas, about 50 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Goleta sits in the top quarter (about 51%, above 94% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 63% of adults in Goleta have never been married, in the top fraction of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Goleta, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Goleta looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 67% of households in Goleta rent, about 42 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 20% of adults in Goleta report food insecurity, above 81% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Isla Vista, CA D+80
- Ellwood, CA D+37
- Santa Barbara, CA D+49
- Montecito, CA D+40
- Summerland, CA D+38
- Toro Canyon, CA D+31
- Santa Ynez, CA D+6
- Carpinteria, CA D+37
- Solvang, CA D+13
- Los Olivos, CA D+14
Cities with Similar Populations
- Annandale, VA D+33
- Venice, FL R+21
- Huntsville, TX R+13
- Houma, LA R+37
- Garner, NC D+17
- Bentonville, AR R+14
- Margate, FL D+26
- Coconut Creek, FL D+9
- Florence, AL R+34
- Monroe, NC R+16
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.