Ellwood leans heavily Democratic by roughly 36 points: about 68% of voters vote Democratic and 32% Republican.
About 44% of adults in Ellwood typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ellwood, ~30% vote Democratic, ~14% Republican, and ~56% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ellwood compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Ellwood leans more Democratic than 6 of 12 neighbors.
Ellwood runs about 17 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Ellwood. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+38) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+17), a spread of about 21 points.
Why Ellwood leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ellwood, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 50% of adults in Ellwood hold a bachelor's degree, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 32% of adults in Ellwood have never been married, above 81% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Ellwood, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Ellwood looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 38% of households in Ellwood rent, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 5% of homes in Ellwood have more than one occupant per room, above 88% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Goleta, CA D+53
- Isla Vista, CA D+80
- Santa Barbara, CA D+49
- Montecito, CA D+40
- Santa Ynez, CA D+6
- Summerland, CA D+38
- Solvang, CA D+13
- Toro Canyon, CA D+31
- Los Olivos, CA D+14
- Buellton, CA Even
Cities with Similar Populations
- La Crosse, IN R+45
- Grand Cane, LA R+29
- Bluewater, NM R+20
- Middlesex, NY R+39
- Dubberly, LA R+43
- Farmville, GA R+73
- St. Vincent College, PA R+14
- Lowman, NY R+51
- Gerald, OH R+58
- Cherry Creek, NY R+48
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.