Montpelier leans heavily Democratic by roughly 42 points: about 71% of voters vote Democratic and 29% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Vermont did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 80% of adults in Montpelier typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Montpelier, ~57% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Montpelier compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Montpelier leans more Democratic than 83 of 84 neighbors.
Montpelier runs about 10 points more Democratic than Vermont as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Montpelier. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+57) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+6), a spread of about 63 points.
Why Montpelier leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Montpelier, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 61% of adults in Montpelier hold a bachelor's degree, about 32 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 31% of adults in Montpelier have never been married, above 76% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Montpelier, VT sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Montpelier looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Montpelier is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 75%, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Montpelier have completed high school, above 92% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Wrightsville, VT D+22
- East Montpelier, VT D+23
- North Montpelier, VT D+27
- Middlesex, VT D+22
- Barre, VT D+3
- Adamant, VT D+23
- Plainfield, VT D+24
- Worcester, VT D+26
- Websterville, VT R+6
- Northfield, VT D+2
Cities with Similar Populations
- Morro Bay, CA D+16
- Lutherville-Timonium, MD D+21
- Annapolis Neck, MD D+27
- Prince George, VA D+7
- Athol, MA R+8
- North Logan, UT R+25
- St. Clair, MI R+33
- Ellisville, MO Even
- Strasburg, VA R+42
- Holbrook, MA D+12
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Vermont Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. VT did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.